Warsaw Rises as Europe’s Top Commercial Real Estate Hub
Commercial real estate investors are increasingly looking to Warsaw as a core European destination, a shift driven by a convergence of economic resilience and structural supply constraints. The city has climbed to third place in Europe’s most attractive real estate markets, trailing only London and Madrid, and outperforming major hubs like Paris and Milan. This ranking reflects a decisive change in investor perception; the city is no longer seen simply as a regional Central and Eastern European market, but as a liquid, transparent place offering strong risk-adjusted returns.
Warsaw’s strategic location at the intersection of major European corridors provides the city with exceptional connectivity advantages. The transport network supports this status, with direct rail links to Berlin, Vienna, Prague, and the Baltic states. The city’s airport network further bolsters its role, with Warsaw Chopin serving as the busiest airport in Central and Eastern Europe and Modlin expanding to cater to the low-cost carrier segment.
Infrastructure projects are currently reshaping the city’s geography and property values. The extension of Metro Line M2 to the western Bemowo district is scheduled for completion at the end of 2026. Historically, such expansions have lifted property values by 10–20% in surrounding neighbourhoods, creating substantial opportunities for early-positioned investors. The longer-term Central Transport Hub (CPK) project will further integrate air, rail, and road networks, cementing Poland’s position as a continental logistics powerhouse.
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The Office Market: A Supply Gap Story
The office market is experiencing one of the most pronounced supply-demand imbalances in Europe. Total modern office stock stood at 6.23 million sqm at the end of 2025, yet new supply has contracted sharply. Less than 90,000 sqm was delivered during the year, a 15% decline year-on-year, while the volume of space under construction fell by 16% to just 190,000 sqm. This contraction signals further supply constraints through 2026–2027.
Despite the limited new supply, demand remains robust. Total take-up reached 790,000 sqm in 2025, up 7% year-on-year, with the fourth quarter delivering a record 310,000 sqm of signed lease agreements. The vacancy rate fell to 9.1% at year-end 2025, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous year. The disparity between central and non-central locations is stark; the City Centre vacancy rate compressed to just 6.1%.
Prime headline rents in Warsaw’s CBD stood at EUR 24.00–28.00/sqm/month in December 2025, with top-tier properties commanding above EUR 27.00/sqm/month. Cushman & Wakefield expects continued upward pressure on rents, particularly for projects under construction and prime CBD buildings. The flight-to-quality trend is evident across the market, with tenants increasingly prioritising WELL, LEED, and BREEAM certifications. Older buildings in districts like Służewiec are being systematically withdrawn from stock for repurposing into residential use or full refurbishment.
Key transactions in 2025 demonstrated occupier commitment to the city. AstraZeneca renewed and expanded its lease to 22,500 sqm at Postępu 14, while Polkomtel renewed 22,700 sqm at Multimedia House of Plus. These deals reflect the deepening presence of multinational corporations across pharmaceuticals, technology, and financial services.
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Industrial and Logistics: Quality Over Quantity
Poland’s industrial and logistics market has matured into Europe’s fifth-largest hub, with total modern stock reaching 36.6 million sqm at the end of 2025. The Warsaw metropolitan area leads the national stock with 7.34 million sqm, cementing its position as the primary logistics gateway for Central and Eastern Europe.
The sector is transitioning from a phase of rapid expansion to one of quality-focused development. New supply in 2025 declined to 1.68 million sqm, while gross take-up reached 6.64 million sqm, the third-highest annual result in market history. This demand was driven by 3PL operators, retail chains, and increasingly by light manufacturing occupiers, which accounted for approximately 15% of total leasing volume. The national vacancy rate stood at 7.4% at the end of 2025, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Warsaw’s position within the FLAP-D data centre markets, combined with its robust logistics infrastructure, places it at the epicentre of a cross-sector rivalry between logistics and data centre developers. Automation and technology integration are transforming Warsaw’s logistics stock, driving demand for higher-specification facilities with enhanced power capacity and ceiling heights. This creates a bifurcated market where modern, sustainable assets command significant premiums over older stock.
Living Sector: Institutional Expansion
Warsaw’s residential market is witnessing the rapid institutionalisation of rental housing. The Private Rented Sector (PRS) has expanded dramatically, with nearly 24,700 units added over the past five years. Vacancy rates in the PRS sector stand at just 3.5%, with average occupancy reaching 98%. The market is diversifying beyond standard PRS into co-living schemes and purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA), with a record 3,800 beds delivered in 2025.
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Demographic trends support sustained demand. Warsaw’s position as a talent magnet ensures continued in-migration of young professionals seeking quality rental accommodation. However, Poland’s ageing population will drive future demand for senior housing, an undersupplied segment presenting long-term opportunity.
Poland’s commercial real estate investment market reached €3.98bn in total transaction value in 2025, with the fourth quarter affirming sustained investor appetite despite demanding macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions. Domestic capital has become increasingly prominent, accounting for almost 20% of transaction volume. The industrial and logistics sector recorded the second-largest transaction volume among commercial sectors, reaching €1.5bn, an 11% year-on-year increase.
Warsaw’s relative yield advantage remains compelling. Prime office yields stand at approximately 6.00%, offering a significant spread over comparable Western European markets. As interest rates continue to normalise and core capital from Western Europe and the US returns to deployment mode, Warsaw is well positioned to capture substantial capital reallocation. The upcoming spatial planning reform taking effect in June 2026 may impact development timelines and costs in peripheral districts, though the reform is expected to professionalise development processes and improve land-use efficiency over the medium term.
