Student housing occupancy dips amid new supply surge

Student housing occupancy for the 2026-2027 academic year is expected to fall below the previous year’s levels, as new construction and slower enrollment growth create challenges in key university markets. Preliminary data from Yardi Matrix shows occupancy at 94.5% in September across 200 tracked universities, matching the same period in 2025 and the historical average since 2019. However, the figure is projected to decline further as more data is analyzed, with an alternative estimate placing it at 92.1%.

The downturn follows a difficult leasing season marked by a surge in new supply alongside signs of weakening student enrollment. In 2026 alone, more than 31,000 dedicated off-campus bedrooms were completed—20% more than in 2025. Although half of the newly completed projects reached full occupancy, properties delivered this year averaged just 84.1% occupancy in September, compared with 95.3% for 2025 deliveries at the same point last year.

Despite the supply constraints, rent increases have remained limited. The average advertised rent across the Yardi 200 slipped to $928 per bedroom in September, down from $931 in July. Despite remaining largely flat over the past eight months, rents increased 1.6% year-over-year, benefiting from declines recorded during summer 2025. Leasing-season rent growth averaged 1.2% across all properties, including new deliveries, while same-store growth reached only 0.5%.

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Occupancy rates showed significant variation by market. Thirty-six of the tracked universities were fully occupied in September, including major systems like Oklahoma, Washington, and Virginia Commonwealth. Meanwhile, 38 markets recorded estimated occupancy below 90%, with weaker performance concentrated among schools experiencing enrollment declines or substantial new deliveries. North Carolina State, for example, recorded 81.3% occupancy following the delivery of 2,195 bedrooms in 2026. UC Berkeley reached 89.7% after adding 1,430 beds. Purdue, which has added 1,588 beds since 2024, saw occupancy decline to 88.2% from 94% last year. Another 3,673 beds are under construction in that market, potentially extending leasing pressure.

Some universities have defied the trend. UNC Charlotte’s occupancy rose to 98.3%, up from 91.8% in 2025 and 85.3% in 2024. Boise State improved to 98.2% from 92.6% and 86.8%, respectively. East Carolina also continued its recovery, reaching 93% after recording 87.9% last year and 82.3% in 2024. Meanwhile, Purdue recorded an 8.2% leasing-season rent decline, while Arizona State and North Carolina State posted decreases of 6% and 3.3%, respectively. In contrast, Oklahoma State’s rents increased 11.4% to $671 per bedroom, and Louisville’s rose 9% to $756, while Mississippi State registered a 6.3% increase to $720.

The supply-demand imbalance is most severe in the 10 university markets with the highest 2026 deliveries, which added more than 17,000 bedrooms combined. Their weighted-average occupancy declined 300 basis points year-over-year to 92.8%. Among eight of these universities reporting fall enrollment, student counts declined an average of 0.5%, compared with 1.8% growth in 2025. With another 18,500 bedrooms under construction across these markets, occupancy and pricing pressures could persist next year.